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Earthquake Spectra / Volume 27 / Issue 2 / MANUSCRIPTS

Earthquake Spectra 27, pp. 539-557 (2011); doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3587204

Economic Impacts of the ShakeOut Scenario

Adam Rose, M.EERI1, Dan Wei1, and Anne Wein, M.EERI2

1University of Southern California, 310 RTH, 3710 McClintock Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90089
2U.S. Geological Survey, MS 531, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, CA 94025

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For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy’s ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.

© 2011 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

KEYWORDS and PACS

Keywords

commerce, earthquakes, economics

PACS

  • 89.65.Gh

    Economics; econophysics, financial markets, business and management

  • 89.60.Gg

    Impact of natural and man-made disasters

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ARTICLE DATA

History
Received 01 January 2010
Accepted 10 March 2011
Digital Object Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3587204

PUBLICATION DATA

ISSN

8755-2930 (print)  

Publisher

$abstract.society.value is a Member of CrossRef Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

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