ShakeOut Scenario: Water System Impacts from a Mw 7.8 San Andreas Earthquake

Davis, Craig; O’Rourke, Thomas

doi:doi:10.1193/1.3571563

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Earthquake Spectra / Volume 27 / Issue 2 / MANUSCRIPTS

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Earthquake Spectra 27, pp. 459-476 (2011); doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3571563

ShakeOut Scenario: Water System Impacts from a M_w 7.8 San Andreas Earthquake

Craig Davis, M.EERI¹ and Thomas O’Rourke, M.EERI²

¹Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, 111 N. Hope St., Room 1368, Los Angeles, CA 90012
²Cornell University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853

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Seismic response simulations of the Los Angeles water supply to a M_w 7.8 San Andreas Fault earthquake scenario are used to assess the regional aqueduct and water distribution system performance in Southern California. Aqueducts sustain significant damage, and restoration of water flow is estimated to take between 4 and 18 months. Local emergency water supplies are insufficient to match the duration of aqueduct repairs, requiring severe water rationing. System serviceability declines rapidly due to numerous pipe leaks, causing serious difficulties for firefighting. Water service restoration to all customers is projected to take several months, with restoration of pre-earthquake water demand requiring more than a year. Business interruptions from long-term water rationing affect the regional economy greater than previously anticipated. Results from this scenario show how critical it is for all water agencies to prepare for a large-magnitude San Andreas earthquake.