You are not logged in You are not logged in to this journal. Log In

Earthquake Spectra / Volume 27 / Issue 2 / MANUSCRIPTS

Earthquake Spectra 27, pp. 293-313 (2011); doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3574226

Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazards for the Southern San Andreas Fault Using Scenarios and Empirical Slips

Rui Chen1 and Mark D. Petersen2

1California Geological Survey, 801 K Street, MS 12-32, Sacramento, CA 95814
2U.S. Geological Survey, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO 80401

Full Text: Read Online (HTML) | Download PDF | Buy PDF (US$25) | View Cart
We apply a probabilistic method to develop fault displacement hazard maps and profiles for the southern San Andreas Fault. Two slip models are applied: (1) scenario slip, defined by the ShakeOut rupture model, and (2) empirical slip, calculated using regression equations relating global slip to earthquake magnitude and distance along the fault. The hazard is assessed using a range of magnitudes defined by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast and the ShakeOut. For hazard mapping we develop a methodology to partition displacement among multiple fault branches based on geological observations. Estimated displacement hazard extends a few kilometers wide in areas of multiple mapped fault branches and poor mapping accuracy. Scenario and empirical displacement hazard differs by a factor of two or three, particularly along the southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault. We recommend the empirical slip model with site-specific geological data to constrain uncertainties for engineering applications.

© 2011 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

KEYWORDS and PACS

Keywords

earthquake engineering, fracture, hazards, regression analysis

PACS

  • 89.60.Gg

    Impact of natural and man-made disasters

  • 89.60.Ec

    Environmental safety

  • 81.40.Np

    Fatigue, corrosion fatigue, embrittlement, cracking, fracture, and failure

  • 02.50.-r

    Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics

RELATED DATABASES

To view database links for this article, you need to log in.

ARTICLE DATA

History
Received 30 January 2010
Accepted 02 August 2010
Digital Object Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3574226

PUBLICATION DATA

ISSN

8755-2930 (print)  

Publisher

$abstract.society.value is a Member of CrossRef Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

For access to fully linked references, you need to log in.

Close

Your Recent History Recent History Help

Recently Viewed

  1. Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazards for the Southern San Andreas Fault Using Scenarios and Empirical Slips
  2. The ShakeOut Earthquake Source and Ground Motion Simulations
  3. Developing a Scenario for Widespread Use: Best Practices, Lessons Learned
  4. The ShakeOut Scenario: A Hypothetical Mw7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
  5. FOREWORD
Copyright © Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Help Contact
close