The ShakeOut Scenario: A Hypothetical Mw7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Porter, Keith; Jones, Lucile; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Ken; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Sue; Ponti, Daniel; Reichle, Michael; Rose, Adam Z.; Scawthorn, Charles R.; Seligson, Hope A.; Shoaf, Kimberley I.; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

doi:doi:10.1193/1.3563624

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Earthquake Spectra / Volume 27 / Issue 2 / MANUSCRIPTS

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Earthquake Spectra 27, pp. 239-261 (2011); doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3563624

The ShakeOut Scenario: A Hypothetical M_w7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Keith Porter, M.EERI¹, Lucile Jones, M.EERI², Dale Cox², James Goltz, M.EERI³, Ken Hudnut², Dennis Mileti, M.EERI⁴, Sue Perry², Daniel Ponti², Michael Reichle⁵, Adam Z. Rose, M.EERI⁶, Charles R. Scawthorn, M.EERI¹, Hope A. Seligson, M.EERI⁷, Kimberley I. Shoaf, M.EERI⁸, Jerry Treiman⁵, and Anne Wein²

¹SPA Risk LLC, Denver, CO, and Kyoto, Japan, keith@cohen-porter.net
²U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, Menlo Park, and Sacramento, CA
³California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, Pasadena, CA
⁴University of Colorado at Boulder, ret.
⁵California Geological Survey, Sacramento and Los Angeles, CA
⁶University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
⁷MMI Engineering, Huntington Beach, CA
⁸University of California at Los Angeles

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In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a M_w7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km². A custom HAZUS^®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes $87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total $191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage ($46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ($24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.